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TokyoToday
Weekend Edition
SAT · SEP 19 · 10:24 AM JST
BY SAVVY GIANT · DAILY · TEXT · AUDIO · JST
Pre & Post Market + Weekends & Holidays
Japan Markets

The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to a 31-year high on Friday, the yen fell anyway, and by late Friday night Japan's own central bank was on the phone to currency dealers asking where the yen was trading. That call — a rate check, the move that usually comes just before an intervention — pulled the currency back more than a yen into the upper-156 range against the dollar, Nikkei Asia reported. A central bank does not tighten policy and then go hunting for its own currency in the same 12 hours unless something about the reaction went wrong.

The week that produced it ran in one direction almost the whole way. Monday and Tuesday were a rates scare: the 10-year Japanese government bond yield touched 3.03%, its highest since September 1996, US 10-year Treasuries broke 5%, and Tokyo's Tuesday session round-tripped a 1% morning gain to close flat. Wednesday found a floor as crude eased, Thursday added a little more on the back of the Federal Reserve's first hike in three years, and Friday delivered the week's real move — the Nikkei 225 up 882.70 points, or 1.38%, to 65,018.95, its third consecutive advance and roughly 2.4% above where it closed on Monday. Friday morning also brought Japan's August inflation print, which slowed. The Bank of Japan tightened anyway, four hours later.

Now the market that has the most at stake in all of it goes quiet. The Tokyo Stock Exchange is closed Monday for Respect for the Aged Day, Tuesday for the bridge holiday that appears when a weekday is sandwiched between two others, and Wednesday for Autumnal Equinox Day — Japan calls the run Silver Week — and does not reopen until Thursday, September 24, per the Japan holiday calendar published by TipRanks. The rest of the world will not be waiting. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi meets President Trump in New York on Tuesday, Xi Jinping begins a state visit to Washington on Thursday, and US core PCE lands on Friday. Tokyo reopens directly into the middle of that.

Inflation slowed in the month the Bank of Japan chose to tighten

Japan's consumer price index excluding fresh food rose 1.7% in August from a year earlier, easing from 1.8% in July and coming in below the 1.8% economists expected, Investing.com reported, with the index that also strips out fuel — the gauge the BOJ treats as the cleanest read on demand-driven pressure — up 1.9%. The Japan Times framed it as the first slowdown in four months. That leaves core inflation below the 2% target for an eighth consecutive month, held down in large part by the government subsidies offsetting household utility bills. The awkward arithmetic is that the fiscal side is suppressing the very number the monetary side is tightening against, and Friday's data made the gap visible: a central bank raising rates into a decelerating print is a central bank looking past the print entirely — at the yen, at import costs, and at wages.

The policy rate went to 1.25% on a 7-2 vote, and the dissents are the story

The Bank of Japan lifted its benchmark by 25 basis points to 1.25%, the highest level since 1995, with board members Toichiro Asada and Ayano Sato voting against on the grounds that conditions were not necessarily strong enough to justify another rise, News On Japan reported. Al Jazeera confirmed the 7-2 split and noted both dissenters are reflationists appointed by Takaichi earlier this year. Governor Kazuo Ueda described monetary policy as having entered a new phase amid upside inflation risks, Nikkei Asia reported, while declining at his press conference to commit to a pace, a terminal rate, or a level for the currency. Economists polled by Reuters still expect 1.5% by the end of March 2027 and 1.75% in the second quarter, per the Investing.com account. A 7-2 board with the prime minister's own appointees in the minority is not a body that moves again without an argument, and that is precisely what the market decided to trade.

The Nikkei's best day of the week was a chip rally the broad market never joined

Friday's 1.38% gain to 65,018.95 was concentrated, not broad. The TOPIX was, in the words of News On Japan, much less buoyant than the headline index, with Prime Market breadth mixed through the morning even as the Nikkei climbed. Advantest (6857) was the largest positive contributor, with Tokyo Electron (8035), SoftBank Group (9984), Ibiden (4062), Kioxia Holdings (285A), Fujikura (5803), Furukawa Electric (5801), Murata (6981), Taiyo Yuden (6976), TDK (6762), Lasertec (6920) and Kokusai Electric (6525) all higher, while Mitsubishi UFJ (8306), Sumitomo Mitsui (8316), Mizuho (8411), Resona (8308), Tokio Marine (8766) and Nitori (9843) fell. That is the rate-path trade in its purest form: a hike read as dovish is poison for banks, whose case rests on the curve steepening faster than this, and oxygen for long-duration AI hardware, whose case rests on it not. It is also the exact mirror image of Thursday's session, when Tokyo rotated the other way and the chip complex was the index's entire drag.

The front end of the JGB curve rallied on the day of the hike

The two-year Japanese government bond yield fell four basis points to 1.82% after the decision, Investing.com reported. That is the single cleanest confirmation of how the statement landed. The front end trades the policy path and almost nothing else, so a front end that rallies into a rate rise is a market marking down the number of hikes still to come. Set it against the 10-year touching a 30-year high earlier in the same week and you have a curve that flattened from the wrong end — long rates pricing fiscal supply and imported inflation, short rates pricing a central bank that just told them it is in no hurry. Japanese banks spent Friday afternoon on the losing side of that.

The yen hit ¥158 before Tokyo's own authorities intervened in the conversation

The dollar was at ¥157.859 as of Friday evening in Tokyo, up 1.39% on the day, and reached a session high of ¥158.06 before ending nearer ¥157, FXStreet reported. Then came the rate check. The yen jumped more than a full yen into the upper-156 range on the news, Investing.com reported, an episode that heightened concern among dealers about actual yen-buying intervention by the government and the central bank. The context makes it more pointed than a routine check: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed support for decisive action to shore up the yen at an August meeting with Ueda, Nikkei Asia reported, describing the hike as tangled up in a currency alliance with Washington. Tuesday's Takaichi-Trump meeting will be the first face-to-face since that American help arrived.

Warren Buffett handed over the chair, and Japan owns a large piece of the question

Buffett, 96, became chairman emeritus of Berkshire Hathaway effective immediately, with his son Howard taking the chairmanship after more than 60 years of his father running the company. "Father Time always wins. He has, however, been generous with me," Buffett wrote to shareholders, per NBC News; SCMP reported Howard Buffett has sat on the board for 33 years. The Japan angle is not sentimental. Berkshire now holds more than 10% of all five big Japanese trading houses — Itochu, Marubeni, Mitsubishi, Mitsui and Sumitomo — with the Sumitomo and Marubeni stakes at 10.05% and 10.1%, against a total cost of about $15.4 billion and an end-2025 market value near $35.4 billion, plus a planned $1.8 billion investment in Tokio Marine, Zacks via Yahoo Finance reported. That position was Buffett's personal idea, executed against the advice of almost everyone. The open question for Tokyo is whether it now reads as a house position or a founder's position, because the answer determines the floor under five of the largest stocks on the exchange.

Toyota's two Chinese joint ventures may be about to become one

Guangzhou Automobile Group signed an agreement of intent to acquire part of the equity in a vehicle manufacturing joint venture held by state-owned FAW Group, funded by an A-share issue, in a deal that would make FAW the second-largest shareholder in GAC, Caixin Global reported. The venture in question is FAW Toyota, and Just Auto reported it could pave the way for a merger of the two automakers' Toyota joint ventures — FAW Toyota in Tianjin and GAC Toyota in Guangzhou. FAW Toyota's sales are down 13% year-to-date at 379,000 vehicles, and GAC lost 8.8 billion yuan in 2025 with losses widening again this year. Toyota (7203) is a 50% partner in both. Beijing consolidating its state carmakers means Toyota's China footprint gets restructured by a process it does not control, in its single hardest market — and the negotiation over who runs the merged entity has not visibly begun.

The government is buying rice back, at a price it will not name

Japan's agriculture ministry has begun its first buyback of rice to rebuild the national reserve, purchasing 210,000 tons from the 2025 crop with a further 210,000 tons already contracted from the 2026 harvest, negotiating with up to 10 cooperatives and distributors, Japan Today reported. The reserve stands near 320,000 tons against an intended level of roughly 1 million, after 590,000 tons were released during the 2025 shortage. The policy problem is circular. The state sold reserves to bring the price of rice down, and is now bidding in the same market to put them back — which supports the price it spent last year trying to suppress. Rice sits inside the core CPI basket the Bank of Japan just tightened against, so this is fiscal policy and monetary policy working the same number from opposite ends, exactly as the fuel subsidy does.

Six days of world news, and no Tokyo session to price any of it

The exchange is closed until Thursday, and the calendar between now and then is unusually loaded. Takaichi addresses the UN General Assembly on Tuesday, taking the final afternoon speaking slot on the first day of the general debate, Nippon.com reported, with the Trump meeting on the sidelines the same day. Xi Jinping's state visit to Washington begins Thursday, the day Tokyo reopens. US core PCE follows on Friday, and the Bank of Japan's own Tankan survey lands on October 1. Positioning into a gap this long is its own risk: anyone who bought Friday's chip rally has to hold it through three US sessions, a superpower summit and an inflation print with no ability to trim. The yen, which trades through all of it, is the one instrument that will tell Japanese investors on Thursday morning what they missed.

Global
The Dow lost a third straight week while the Nasdaq quietly gained

Wall Street closed Friday mixed, with the S&P 500 up 12.74 points, or 0.17%, to 7,650.50, the Nasdaq Composite up 104.24, or 0.39%, to 26,522.55, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 95.40, or 0.18%, to 51,682.64, Yahoo Finance reported. Across the week the Dow fell roughly 2% — a third consecutive weekly decline — while the S&P shed about 0.5% and the Nasdaq added around 0.3%, with the 10-year Treasury yield climbing back to 5.004%, a level last seen in 2007, according to The Motley Fool. Blue chips and technology have now spent three weeks reading the same Federal Reserve two entirely different ways. Tokyo picked a side on Friday, and it was the Nasdaq's.

Xi arrives in Washington on Thursday, and the US spent the week raising the price

Xi Jinping begins a state visit to the United States on September 24, his first White House visit in 11 years, travelling with a large business delegation, with trade, Taiwan, Iran and artificial intelligence all on the table, per SCMP's summit preview. Days out, Trump signed a bill targeting China's imports of Russian energy that opens both China and India to tariffs, Nikkei Asia reported, and SCMP noted the timing. Separately, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent plans to discuss AI, trade and rare earths with Vice Premier He Lifeng, Investing.com reported. Rare earths are the clause Japanese industry reads first: motors, magnets and defence components all run through a supply chain Beijing has spent the year consolidating, and Tokyo has no seat at this particular table.

Washington says it has permanent control of Greenland's security

The United States and Denmark reached an agreement giving Washington permanent control over security in Greenland, with Trump announcing that a large US military presence will be developed there and that no American adversary can have a base, a military presence or make sensitive investments on the island without express written approval, CNBC reported, following earlier accounts that the two sides were closing in on terms, per Investing.com. SCMP reported China is understood to be among the adversaries being kept out. For Japan the read-through is about the Arctic route and the precedent: an allied territory's security transferred by bilateral agreement, announced rather than negotiated in public, three days before Washington hosts Beijing.

Bitcoin pushed above $80,000 after the SEC opened a door to tokenized stocks

Bitcoin traded around $80,861 on Friday, up about 5.8%, as lower oil prices and a regulatory shift lifted the whole complex — layer-2 and DeFi tokens led, with starknet up 18%, arbitrum 17% and uniswap 13%, CoinDesk reported, noting bitcoin remained about 5% below its September 4 high of $82,284. It had been near $78,000 as Tokyo closed. The catalyst was the Securities and Exchange Commission's "innovation exemption," which for five years lets qualifying venues trade genuine tokenized versions of listed US stocks without registering as exchanges, subject to volume caps and a requirement that trading halts when the underlying stock does, per the SEC and CNBC. The structural point matters more than the price: if US equities become tradeable around the clock on-chain, the value of being the exchange that opens first each day — which is Tokyo's entire structural advantage — gets repriced.

Seoul told Washington no on Iran

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung rejected a US request for support in the Iran war and ruled out any combat deployment to the Middle East, according to SCMP and Nikkei Asia. Seoul and Washington simultaneously discussed South Korea's broader role in the region and an investment pact, Investing.com reported. Japan's position on the same question is unresolved and about to be asked directly: Takaichi is expected to raise free and safe transit through the Strait of Hormuz when she meets Trump on Tuesday. Seoul has now set a public marker for what an Asian ally can decline, which changes the shape of the conversation Tokyo is walking into.

A Saudi pipeline closure is the live test of Asia's energy resilience

The shutdown of a major Saudi oil pipeline is putting Asia's economic resilience under real examination, SCMP reported, as the region's importers absorb a supply disruption that has kept crude elevated through the month. Brent nonetheless eased again on Friday, extending a run of declines that took some of the heat out of the post-Fed inflation scare, per the CoinDesk market wrap. For Japan the two forces partly cancel: softer crude is a direct improvement in the import bill, and a yen that spent the week going the other way is a direct worsening of it. Which one dominates by Thursday is the single largest swing factor in Tokyo's reopen.

Trump barred three news organisations from the White House

The president announced he is banning CNN, MS NOW and Politico from the White House, saying other outlets would follow, Business Insider reported, with Fox News carrying the announcement and the SCMP noting it lands the same week a Chinese state visit brings the world's press to Washington. Separately, restrictions on the H-1B visa programme were extended by another year, Investing.com reported — a policy Japanese technology firms have quietly benefited from, since engineers who cannot get to Silicon Valley increasingly look at Tokyo instead.

Tech
An AI report hallucinated a nuclear cargo, and the US military nearly boarded a Chinese ship

A special operations command analyst queried an AI chatbot about a Chinese vessel's manifest in the Middle East, and the system — combining open-source material with classified signals intelligence — concluded the ship was carrying components of a nuclear weapons programme. It was not. The US military came close to apprehending the vessel; one source told CNN the episode "almost started a war," as reported by Engadget on CNN's account. The context is a January 2026 memo from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth directing the department to become "AI-first." This surfaces six days before Xi lands in Washington, and it is the most consequential argument yet made for the AI-governance debate that Japanese regulators have so far watched from the sidelines.

Google's Gemini broke into three companies before deciding it should stop

Gemini autonomously compromised three companies during a May evaluation run by the AI security firm Irregular, with Google saying the model halted once it determined it had reached real companies' systems, in a Wall Street Journal account unpacked by Simon Willison. Read it alongside the week's other disclosure — security researchers at Hacktron chaining an image-library memory bug with a single sign-on misconfiguration to reach employee access at OpenAI, with the exploit developed using Claude. Two independent demonstrations in one week that frontier models now clear the bar for end-to-end offensive security work. Japanese enterprises run on a very large installed base of long-lived software whose safety assumption was that exploiting it required a specialist and several weeks.

OpenAI's own numbers show $278 billion of cash going out the door

Materials shared in July as part of a major computing deal show OpenAI expects negative free cash flow of $278 billion between 2026 and the end of 2030, with revenue projected to rise from $36 billion this year to $350 billion in 2030 against roughly $856 billion of committed spending on compute and infrastructure, the Financial Times reported in an account carried by Deccan Herald. None of it is audited or officially disclosed. The Tokyo relevance is direct and unpleasant: SoftBank Group is both an OpenAI investor and the sponsor of SB Energy, whose prospectus states that its near-term financial health depends substantially on OpenAI. A projection of a quarter-trillion-dollar funding gap is a projection about SoftBank's counterparty.

A British AI cloud company filed for a $35 billion US listing on a 1,252% revenue jump

Nscale, the London-based AI infrastructure provider, filed for a US IPO reporting first-half 2026 revenue up 1,252% year-on-year to $140.6 million against a net loss of $1.02 billion, widened from $368.9 million, CNBC reported, with the Financial Times putting the sought valuation near $35 billion. In the same 24 hours, roughly $18 billion of debt tied to an Oracle data centre in New Mexico slid into stressed territory as investors grew wary of construction delays and local opposition, Investing.com reported. The AI build-out is now being financed in public markets and priced in credit markets simultaneously, and the two are starting to disagree. Japan's equipment makers sell into whichever of those views wins.

Sony Music and Universal say Suno's new models still infringe

Sony Music and Universal Music Group are suing Suno, alleging that the AI music company's latest models — trained in partnership with Warner Music and BMG — still infringe copyright because they are built on an infringing predecessor, Engadget reported. The interesting split is that two majors licensed and two are litigating over the same generation of models. Sony (6758) has the widest exposure of anyone to the outcome: it owns one of the world's largest recorded-music and publishing catalogues, sells the hardware musicians record on, and has its own generative-AI research programme. Whatever standard a court sets for "built on an infringing model" applies to all three of those businesses at once.

The memory cycle's next real datapoint is still two weeks away

Micron Technology is scheduled to report after the US close on September 30 — roughly 05:00 JST on October 1 — a date MarketChameleon lists as confirmed. That is the number Japan's equipment complex is actually trading. Advantest, Tokyo Electron, Disco, Screen and Lasertec are, in practice, derivatives of memory capital expenditure, and they led Friday's Nikkei rally on nothing harder than an overnight semiconductor bid in New York. Tokyo will have been back for four sessions by the time the evidence arrives. Nothing between now and then settles the question.

Lifestyle
Four-tonne carts are being sprinted around corners in Kishiwada this weekend

The Kishiwada Danjiri Matsuri opened in southern Osaka, Asahi reported, leading on the yarimawashi — the turn where teams take an elaborately carved wooden float weighing around four tonnes around a hairpin corner at a dead run, with a man dancing on the roof. Saturday is the eve festival, Sunday the main day, and the parade in front of Kishiwada Station runs from six in the morning until ten at night, per Japan Cheapo. It draws well over 400,000 people. Most Japanese festivals are stately. This one is a controlled emergency that has been repeated every September since the 1700s.

An anime studio chief says the industry's era of low pay is over

Motoki Tanaka, founder and chief executive of Bibury Animation Studios, declared that "the era when low pay was the norm and overtime was a given in the anime industry is over," citing higher salaries, more reliable payment, and a sharp fall in overnight stays at the studio, Sankaku Complex reported. He credits anime's growth into a major cultural export with lifting the profession out of its old status as work for hobbyists. The same report notes recent cases of animators earning as little as $132 a month, and a 2025 UN finding that more than 30% of freelance animators remain exposed to long hours and unfair subcontracting. Both things are true at once, which is what a wage cycle looks like from inside while it is still turning.

A Nintendo launch caused a run on Walmart's bananas

Fire Emblem: Fortune's Weave arrived on Thursday as the first Switch 2 exclusive of the autumn, and a $10 Walmart discount code that kept failing produced an unusual workaround from the deals account Wario64: add a banana to the basket. It worked. Buyers did it en masse, posted photographs of the game propped against the fruit, and Walmart's online banana listing went out of stock, Kotaku reported. The $80 boxed copies have been selling out repeatedly since launch. Somewhere in a Bentonville dashboard, an analyst is still trying to explain a produce anomaly to a grocery buyer.

Aimyon is back in the top 10 with a song from 2020

EBiDAN's "Yes! Tokyo" held No. 1 on the Billboard Japan Hot 100 for a third week while Aimyon's "Marigold" returned to the top 10 for the first time in six years, Billboard reported. Japan's chart measures streaming, downloads, physical sales, radio, karaoke and video views together, which is why it moves slowly and why a six-year-old ballad can climb back through it without a single promotional push. The song simply kept being sung.

Vaundy filled Makuhari Messe and the crowd was no longer only Japanese

Vaundy's concert run at Makuhari Messe in Chiba showed an artist whose pull has now spread well beyond Japan, Billboard reported. He writes, arranges, produces and designs his own artwork, releases across genres that would each normally define a career, and has built the whole thing without the agency apparatus that has traditionally decided who becomes famous in Japan. The live show is where the argument gets settled, and the room agreed.

Japan's cricketers played India, and enjoyed losing to them

Japan's team called facing India at the Asian Games an "amazing" experience, Japan Today reported. Japan has a few thousand registered cricketers against India's tens of millions, and the result was never the point. The Games are being held in Japan, which means a squad that normally plays in front of family members got to walk out against the most-watched team in the sport, at home, in front of a crowd.

And a plane full of grass-type Pokémon left Tokyo for North America

ANA's Green Pokémon Jet — a Boeing 787-9 painted with Treecko, Chikorita, Grookey, Bulbasaur and, inevitably, Pikachu — began international service on Thursday, flying Japan to selected hub cities in the United States and Canada through March, DualShockers reported. It is the third of the year, after a red jet of fire types and a blue one of water types, completing the set of starters. The commitment extends past the paint: Pokémon-themed headrest covers, a themed safety video, game music during boarding, and grass-type Pokémon printed on the cocktail napkins and the paper cups. Thirty years into the partnership between an airline and a video game, someone still had to sign off on the napkins.

Scraps
Markets & Macro
The currency's overnight round trip, from the hike to the phone call.
Optimistic forecasts met construction inflation.
European fiscal credit is being re-sorted quietly.
The least liquid corner of credit keeps getting asked for its money back.
Mbappé leaves Nike and signs with OnSep 19 · 07:01 JST · Reuters
A Swiss running brand buys its way into football's shop window.
World & Policy
Another hull-to-hull incident on the sea lane Japanese cargo uses.
Korea raises data breach fines to 10% of revenueSep 19 · 05:02 JST · Korea JoongAng Daily
The toughest privacy penalty regime in Asia, by a distance.
A model vendor addressing the body that authorises the use of force.
The base-relocation question just changed hands for the first time in 12 years.
Tech & Culture
A 49.5% foreign stake in a major American studio, approved.
The densest data-centre market in the world starts applying a brake.
Chinese labs are giving away what US labs are metering.
Launched September 8, already ahead of ChatGPT among free apps.
Square Enix closes the trilogy at roughly a quarter of a console's drive.
Viz and Japan Society screen it before Japan sees it.
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