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WED · AUG 12 · 5:49 PM JST
BY SAVVY GIANT · DAILY · TEXT · AUDIO · JST
Pre & Post Market + Weekends & Holidays
Japan Markets

Tokyo spent Wednesday's session pinned just under 67,000, unable to extend Monday's rally as a fresh Houthi attack in the Red Sea, a widening Hormuz standoff and a sliding yen offset the AI-linked buying that carried the tape earlier this week. Every desk is now waiting on a single number: tonight's US inflation print, due well after the close.

Nikkei stalls just short of 67,000, unable to build on Monday's rally

Tokyo's session played out almost exactly as flagged heading in: the index tested the 67,000 level repeatedly Wednesday and pulled back each time, finishing essentially flat as energy and financial shares offset a drag from electronics and pharmaceuticals, according to News On Japan. Monday's close of 66,970.22 — up 2.08% and the market's best finish in nearly 4 weeks — remains the high-water mark; Wednesday didn't add to it. TOPIX tracked the same rangebound pattern.

The yen keeps sliding toward 160, and Washington and Tokyo are no longer reading from the same script

USD/JPY is now confirmed at 159.20, up 0.37% and creeping toward the round number traders have flagged as the next test of Tokyo's resolve. The more consequential story sits underneath that print: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent wants the BOJ to keep tightening to close the rate gap driving the slide, while Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi remains wary of moving too fast and choking off the domestic recovery her stimulus push is built on — a split the Japan Times reports now risks undermining the two countries' own August 3rd intervention, which briefly pushed the pair back toward 155 before roughly half those gains evaporated. The BOJ has hiked twice since Takaichi took office last October, but its policy rate still sits at just 1%.

JGB yields keep climbing as traders lean harder into a September hike

Japan's government bond yields extended their climb Wednesday, with rate-hike bets firming further as the oil spike layers a fresh imported-inflation argument on top of an already-hawkish BOJ debate, according to Trading Economics. That move is now running well ahead of what USD/JPY alone would suggest — the bond market is pricing the policy fight more aggressively than the currency market is.

Manufacturer sentiment hits a 5-month high on the chip boom

The Reuters Tankan gauge of Japanese manufacturer sentiment rose to +18 in August from +13 in July, its best reading since March, with chemicals and metal-and-machinery sub-indices both jumping on semiconductor-linked demand; non-manufacturer confidence climbed to +28 from +25, according to Yahoo Finance. It's a rare piece of unambiguously good domestic data landing in the middle of a currency and bond-market storm — hard evidence the AI-driven chip cycle is showing up in the real economy, not just the index.

North Korea's 2nd missile test in a week draws another formal protest from Tokyo

North Korea fired a ballistic missile roughly 700 kilometers from its eastern coast early Wednesday, its 2nd launch in less than a week and a likely response to South Korea and the US kicking off joint military drills on August 17, according to the Japan Times. Defence Minister Shinjiro Koizumi called it "a serious problem that affects the safety of the Japanese people" and lodged Japan's protest through its embassy in Beijing. Neither launch has moved markets directly, but the drumbeat adds a standing layer of regional risk premium sitting underneath an already-jittery yen.

The "Katsu Curry Index": a strategist's answer to how undervalued the yen really is

BNY Mellon strategist Geoff Yu has proposed an alternative to the Big Mac Index for gauging currency fair value: the price of katsu curry. Where the Big Mac Index implies a fair USD/JPY rate of roughly 80.30, Yu's katsu curry basket implies something closer to 62.18 — suggesting the yen may be even more undervalued than a hamburger-based comparison shows, according to Toyo Keizai and Bloomberg. Yu's point isn't just academic: he argues that once staples like curry and ramen start feeling unaffordable to ordinary households, pressure for a policy response builds a lot faster than any FX chart shows.

What Thursday's open actually needs from tonight's CPI print

Tokyo shuts for the day still not knowing the one number that will set the tone for tomorrow: July's US CPI, due well after the Tokyo close, with consensus looking for a 0.2% monthly gain and a 3.4% annual rate. A soft print would argue Wednesday's stall was just a news backlog working itself out; a hot one would hand the yen — and the BOJ's September decision — one more reason to keep moving in the direction it's already headed.

Global
A Houthi attack kills 6 in the Red Sea's first fatalities there in over a year, and Washington strikes back

Houthi forces killed 6 people aboard a cargo vessel in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait Wednesday — the first fatalities from Red Sea shipping attacks in more than a year — according to CNBC and Al Jazeera. Within hours, US forces said they fired on a Panama-flagged vessel attempting to breach Washington's blockade of Iranian ports in the Gulf of Oman. The exchange sharply raises the temperature on a standoff that was already keeping cargo away from the region — a direct line to the oil price every Japanese refiner and importer is watching.

Brent jumps to its highest confirmed level in weeks as Hormuz shipping traffic thins further

Brent crude is now confirmed at $88.95 as of Tuesday's close, up 5.49% on the day, with multiple wire reports describing crude extending those gains again Wednesday as Iran continues tying any reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to a change in US policy and shipping traffic through the strait sinks toward a 1-week low, according to Investing.com and Al Jazeera. Every extra dollar on Brent is a direct hit to Japan's import bill, and it's already showing up in the JGB market's inflation pricing.

Tonight's US CPI is the print traders have been circling all week

July's US Consumer Price Index lands this evening, Japan time, with consensus looking for headline inflation up 0.2% on the month and 3.4% year-over-year, and core CPI up 0.1% and 2.5%, according to CNBC. Prediction markets are leaning toward a tame number, but Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid's recent hawkish comments are a reminder the Fed isn't unanimous — and with the effective funds rate steady at 3.63%, markets have already scaled expectations back to just one more hike this year. A soft print supports the same risk-on trade that's been carrying chip and AI names; a hot one hits everything at once, yen included.

KOSPI surges more than 4% as Samsung and SK Hynix jump on report of a first-ever Temasek stake

South Korea's KOSPI surged more than 4% Wednesday as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix each rose over 7% on a local media report that Singapore's Temasek Holdings is considering a direct investment in both memory makers — what would be the sovereign fund's first-ever stake in Korean equities, according to Bloomberg. Temasek reportedly sees the AI-semiconductor segment as undervalued even after both stocks have more than doubled in 2026. It's the clearest read-through yet into Japan's own chip-equipment complex: Tokyo Electron, Advantest and Disco all sell directly into the capacity these two companies are about to expand.

Zelenskyy says Kyiv has sent Washington new proposals to end the war with Russia

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a nightly address that Kyiv has handed US negotiators new proposals aimed at ending the war with Russia, while accusing Moscow of preparing to use next month's parliamentary elections as cover for another mobilization wave, according to the Japan Times. No details on the proposals were released, and both sides have suggested US negotiators will visit Kyiv and Moscow soon. Markets have largely stopped pricing headline risk from the war itself, but any credible movement toward a ceasefire would be a real catalyst for European energy prices and, by extension, the same import-cost calculus already weighing on Japan.

China's EV boom keeps compounding, and it's a warning for every automaker watching from Tokyo

Electric vehicles now dominate China's car market, with BYD, Tesla, Geely and a widening field of local players carving up a market that's shifted away from combustion engines faster than almost any forecaster expected, according to CNBC. Japanese automakers, Toyota chief among them, have leaned on hybrids rather than a full EV pivot — a strategy that's worked in most of the world but leaves them structurally behind in the market setting the pace on price and technology.

Tech
Apple gets downgraded as memory costs eat into the last lever it has on iPhone pricing

Jefferies downgraded Apple to Underperform this week after supply-chain checks found the company's planned all-glass 2027 iPhone has been shelved on low manufacturing yields — a setback the firm called significant because that premium design was one of Apple's few remaining ways to raise average selling prices at exactly the moment memory costs are surging, according to Yahoo Finance. Memory now makes up roughly 34% of the bill-of-materials cost on a 256GB iPhone Pro, up from about 10% a year ago, and TrendForce expects that share to exceed 40% in the first half of 2027. Apple has already raised iPhone prices by as much as $300 this cycle and is expected to absorb the rest through thinner margins rather than pass it all to consumers — a dynamic that keeps every memory maker in Japan's supply chain squarely in the story.

CoreWeave and Super Micro both blow past estimates, and Wall Street pays up for both

CoreWeave's second-quarter revenue more than doubled to $2.58 billion, edging past the Street's $2.56 billion estimate, with its contracted backlog jumping to $129.2 billion — roughly $25 billion added in under 6 weeks — even as net losses widened on rising interest costs; shares were reported up as much as 11% in extended trading following the print, according to CNBC. Super Micro likewise topped its own quarterly estimates and guided its next quarter and full fiscal year above consensus, with shares reported higher by more than 9% in the same after-hours window, according to Yahoo Finance. Both prints are a fresh data point in the same story Japan's chip-equipment makers have been trading off all year: AI infrastructure demand still isn't showing any sign of slowing, whatever the financing-risk debate elsewhere in the sector.

SK Hynix explores selling down its Chongqing packaging plant even as it commits $38 billion to expand at home

SK Hynix is reviewing options — including a possible stake sale — for its roughly $3 billion NAND packaging-and-testing plant in Chongqing, China, with Chinese funds and industry players seen as likely bidders, according to the South China Morning Post. The company stressed no decision has been made, but the review lands just days after SK Hynix committed 54 trillion won — roughly $38 billion — to new DRAM and NAND capacity in South Korea itself, a pairing that reads as a broader pull-back from China-based manufacturing even as the company's Korean stock rides today's Temasek-driven rally.

Google hands the keys to DeepMind to the engineer who's been running it in practice

Google named Koray Kavukcuoglu, DeepMind's chief technology officer and Google's own chief AI architect, to formally lead DeepMind and report directly to CEO Sundar Pichai, with predecessor Demis Hassabis stepping up to chair the unit and serve as Alphabet's chief scientist, according to CNBC. Kavukcuoglu inherits a Gemini franchise that just crossed 1 billion users — a milestone ChatGPT also passed around the same time — but the harder job is closing the model-quality gap with OpenAI and Anthropic that Google's own researchers say still exists, according to the Verge and Ars Technica.

Suspected Chinese hackers used open-source AI agents to breach Taiwanese government sites

Suspected Chinese state-linked hackers built an autonomous hacking tool out of open-source AI agents that compromised Taiwanese government websites in July, according to a Financial Times report cited by Techmeme. It's an early, concrete example of AI lowering the bar for offensive cyber operations rather than just defensive ones — a dynamic CNBC separately reports is already driving a fresh wave of cybersecurity spending as AI agents demonstrate "alarming" hacking skills of their own. The Taiwan angle keeps it relevant well beyond the cybersecurity trade: any operation reaching into Taiwanese government infrastructure sits uncomfortably close to the same supply chain Japan's chip-equipment makers depend on.

Lifestyle
Crunchyroll and Sony lock up global rights to Makoto Shinkai's next film — everywhere except most of Asia

Sony's Crunchyroll has acquired global distribution rights to "Your Name" director Makoto Shinkai's next feature, covering every territory outside Asia except India, following the same distribution playbook used for "Suzume," according to the Hollywood Reporter. Shinkai's last three films — "Your Name," "Weathering With You" and "Suzume" — have grossed a combined $874 million worldwide, and Crunchyroll hasn't revealed a title or release date yet for the new one.

Naomi Osaka's Toronto run ends in a grinding 3-set loss to Elena Rybakina

Naomi Osaka's run at the Canadian Open in Toronto ended in the quarterfinals, falling to Elena Rybakina 4-6, 7-6(5), 6-4 in a match that ran 2 hours and 33 minutes, according to Japan Today. Rybakina now moves on to a semifinal against Coco Gauff — their first meeting since a marathon 3-setter at the same tournament back in 2022.

A US concert giant partners up with Japan's biggest independent promoter

AEG Presents has struck a partnership with Creativeman, one of Japan's leading independent concert promoters, according to Billboard — a tie-up that gives one of the world's largest live-events companies a deeper foothold in Japan's touring market just as international artists keep adding Tokyo and Osaka dates to their world tours.

A toddler K-pop idol: the "Baby Shark" boy is getting his own debut

The child performer known online for his "Baby Shark" dance videos is set to make an official K-pop debut, according to the BBC — proof that the internet's viral-toddler pipeline and the K-pop industry's talent pipeline have officially merged.

NCT 127 drop the "Piñata" video ahead of their 5-track "BLINGY" release

K-pop group NCT 127 released the music video for "Piñata" ahead of their upcoming 5-track album "BLINGY," according to Billboard, the latest single rollout from a group whose fanbase spans Japan as heavily as it does Korea.

The Closer: a rural Gifu canal locals call the "real-life Monet pond"

Tucked down a narrow backroad in Kakamigahara, Gifu Prefecture — not far from Inuyama Castle, home to one of Japan's oldest surviving samurai towers — sits a stretch of the Hashima Irrigation Canal so clear that visitors can count individual pebbles on the bottom, according to SoraNews24. Locals maintain that clarity the old-fashioned way — adding oyster shells to the water each year to filter out impurities naturally — and gold, white and black koi drifting through the current create the illusion of fish floating in mid-air. Enough people have stood at the canal's edge and thought of Impressionist paintings that the spot now has an unofficial nickname: the real-life Monet pond.

Scraps
Markets & Macro
The data-center operator aims to list as soon as next quarter.
Kalshi's annualized revenue tops $4 billion in JulyAug 11 · Techmeme (The Information)
That's up from just over $2 billion 2 months earlier.
A source says the transition will be orderly.
Resilient domestic demand added to the export boost.
World
The vote clears the way for an unchallenged run into the campaign.
A think tank tallied the lost-output toll as extreme heat triggered a Cobra emergency meeting.
HKEX is preparing a formal paper on the proposal, sources say.
Tracking remains uncertain this early in its formation.
Culture
The decades-old design is having an unlikely design-world moment.
Fans had speculated about the project for years.
He joins the show's 2nd season.
The singer says the procedure went well and he's now recovering.
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CALENDAR · WEEK AHEAD
WED · AUG 12 · TODAY
21:30US Core CPI m/mMACRO
Tencent Holdings earningsEARNINGS
~15:30COVER Corporation earningsEARNINGS
~15:30Tokio Marine Holdings,Inc. earningsEARNINGS
THU · AUG 13
21:30US Core PPI m/mMACRO
US Unemployment ClaimsMACRO
~05:00Cisco Systems Inc. earningsEARNINGS
~15:30Appier Group,Inc. earningsEARNINGS
~15:30TORICO Co.,Ltd. earningsEARNINGS
~15:30EDP Corporation earningsEARNINGS
FRI · AUG 14
21:30US Core Retail Sales m/mMACRO
US Prelim UoM Consumer SentimentMACRO
US Prelim UoM Inflation ExpectationsMACRO
~05:00Applied Materials Inc. earningsEARNINGS
~15:30TECNISCO,LTD. earningsEARNINGS
~15:30monoAI technology Co.,Ltd. earningsEARNINGS
SAT · AUG 15
21:30US Retail Sales (July 2026)MACRO
SUN · AUG 16
08:50Japan GDP (prelim, quarterly)MACRO
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