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THU · AUG 6 · 6:15 AM JST
BY SAVVY GIANT · DAILY · TEXT · AUDIO · JST
Pre & Post Market + Weekends & Holidays
Japan Markets

Tokyo enters Thursday carrying real momentum: the Nikkei 225 jumped 3.66% Wednesday to a 2-week high as an AI-stock rally swept through the region, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's cabinet signed off on Japan's first-ever consumption tax cut, and the government moved to designate last week's Kumamoto earthquake an "extremely severe" disaster. The yen holds near its post-intervention range with a September BOJ hike now the consensus call, and Nintendo reports earnings after today's close.

Nikkei jumps 3.66% to a 2-week high as the AI rally sweeps Tokyo

The Nikkei 225 closed Wednesday at 66,300.44, up 3.66%, its best level since July 23, while TOPIX rose 2.16% to around 4,046. A sharp rally in the US Philadelphia Semiconductor Index spurred concentrated overseas buying in Japan's chip-equipment names, with Advantest and Tokyo Electron among the session's biggest gainers, and Korea and Taiwan's own rallies provided an additional tailwind, according to MarketScreener. Trading value on the Prime market topped ¥10 trillion, with advancing issues outnumbering decliners nearly 2-to-1. It's the 3rd straight session of gains and puts the index back within striking distance of its record close.

Takaichi's cabinet approves Japan's first-ever consumption tax cut

Japan's government signed off Wednesday on Prime Minister Takaichi's flagship plan to slash the consumption tax on food to 1% from 8% for 2 years, paired with a benefit payment covering the remaining percentage point so the tax burden on food purchases effectively disappears, according to Nikkei Asia. The cabinet endorsement followed unanimous backing from the ruling LDP's general council earlier in the day and would mark the first reduction in the consumption tax since it was introduced in 1989, pending parliamentary approval, with implementation targeted for April 2027. The measure carries a revenue shortfall of roughly ¥5 trillion, a fiscal cost that's already drawing pushback even as it clears its first formal hurdle.

Kumamoto earthquake designated an "extremely severe" disaster

The government moved this week to formally designate last week's magnitude-7.1 Kumamoto earthquake a disaster of "extreme severity," unlocking a higher tier of national reconstruction funding, with the cabinet approving more than ¥20 billion in reserve-fund spending for quake-affected areas, according to Nippon.com. At least 38 people had been confirmed dead as of Monday, with the toll including 7 from the Aeon Mall explosion in Kashima and 8 at a Nippon Paper Industries mill in Yatsushiro. The designation is a formal acknowledgment of the earthquake's scale and should accelerate funding for the roughly 12,000 damaged buildings across the prefecture as the region moves from emergency response into reconstruction.

Yen holds near its post-intervention range as a September BOJ hike becomes consensus

The yen continues to trade in the mid-150s against the dollar — last confirmed at 157.844, up 0.28% — holding most of the ground recovered after last week's coordinated US-Japan intervention. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has repeated his call for further BOJ rate hikes, saying Washington "strongly supports Japan's decisive market and monetary steps to correct the substantial undervaluation of the yen," according to CNBC. The BOJ held its policy rate at 1% in July but flagged for the first time that underlying inflation could run above target, a signal several economists now read as the clearest hint yet that a hike is coming as soon as the September policy meeting. EUR/JPY has drifted in sympathy with the same intervention-driven yen strength.

Toyota targets 10.5 million vehicles in 2027 on hybrid demand

Toyota is targeting global production of 10.5 million vehicles in 2027, which would mark the first time output has topped 10 million since 2023, with growing hybrid demand cited as the primary driver, according to Nikkei Asia. The company also said it plans to build next-generation hybrid batteries in-house in the coming years. The target lands the same week Honda raised its own full-year profit outlook roughly 30% on the weak yen and strong US hybrid demand, underscoring how central hybrid technology has become to both automakers' near-term growth story even as full-EV adoption in the US stays uneven.

SBI Shinsei, regional banks and KKR build a >¥100 billion lending alliance

SBI Shinsei Bank is partnering with a syndicate of more than 20 Japanese regional banks, KKR and Norinchukin Bank to offer loans exceeding ¥100 billion for large corporate transactions and infrastructure projects including data centers, according to Nikkei Asia. The alliance is explicitly framed as an alternative to Japan's megabank-dominated corporate lending market, giving borrowers a broader pool of capital and more competitive loan terms. It's a structural bet that Japan's data-center and infrastructure buildout will need financing capacity the traditional megabank trio can't fully absorb alone.

Mazda's redesigned CX-5 lags in the US as gas prices favor hybrids

Mazda's newly redesigned CX-5 is underperforming in the US market even as sales of its hybrid CX-50 sibling stay strong, with rising gas prices pushing buyers toward hybrid competitors the CX-5 doesn't yet offer, according to Nikkei Asia. The redesigned model's fuel economy actually stepped down slightly from the outgoing generation due to its larger footprint, at a moment when rival compact SUVs increasingly offer hybrid or plug-in hybrid options rated well above it. Mazda has said a hybrid CX-5 is coming for the 2027 model year, but that leaves a gap of more than a year where the brand's best-selling nameplate is competing without the powertrain buyers currently want most.

Nintendo reports after today's close

Nintendo is scheduled to report fiscal first-quarter results after Tokyo's 15:30 close today, covering the April-to-June period, according to Investing.com. No results are out yet — any figures will follow this evening's session.

Global
Wall Street closed at fresh records again Wednesday, but the Nasdaq lagged

The Dow and S&P 500 both closed at fresh record highs Wednesday on hopes for a Middle East peace breakthrough, while the Nasdaq underperformed as SpaceX and AMD both sold off despite beating estimates, according to MarketScreener. It's the same pattern that's defined this earnings season: broad index-level conviction in the AI and Mideast-de-escalation themes, paired with a bar so high that even genuine beats aren't clearing it for individual names. For Tokyo, a 5th straight winning session on Wall Street is one more tailwind feeding into Thursday's open, alongside the region's own AI-stock momentum.

Wall Street's biggest hedge funds targeted in an AI voice-phishing wave

Hackers attempted to breach information systems at major hedge funds including Two Sigma, Citadel and Point72 Asset Management this week using "vishing" — AI-generated voice calls that convincingly mimic executives' tones and phrasing to trick employees into handing over access, according to Bloomberg, via Bloomberg Law. Two Sigma said it found no indication of any impact to its data or systems, while Point72 told investors it was attacked but saw no early sign client information was taken. FINRA has been in contact with member firms about the attempted breaches. It's a reminder that as AI lowers the cost of highly convincing social engineering, the financial industry's next major breach is as likely to start with a phone call as a phishing email.

Iran and Oman reach an understanding on a Hormuz shipping route

Iran said Wednesday it has reached an understanding with Oman on the geographic coordinates of a shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz, with a joint statement described as in its final drafting stage, according to the Financial Times. Iran's foreign ministry called the talks "forward-moving," though officials cautioned the deal could still be derailed if "certain third parties" obstruct the process — and separately, Iran warned it would strike Gulf states if the US launches new strikes, a reminder the underlying conflict is far from resolved even as the shipping-route talks advance. Brent crude has been trending lower on the prospect of a resolution.

Copper tops $14,000 as US stockpiling drains the global market ahead of Trump's tariff call

Copper climbed to $14,000 a ton in London, its highest in 2 months, as traders positioned ahead of an expected Trump administration decision on a refined-copper import tariff, according to Bloomberg. More than 200,000 tons of copper arrived at US ports in July alone — the largest monthly volume in shipping data going back to 2014 — a hoarding wave that's tightened availability everywhere else. The Commerce Department's recommendation was due at the end of June and still hasn't been made public, leaving the market pricing in a tariff decision that keeps not arriving.

Russian strikes on Kyiv kill at least 21 as Ukraine's air defense struggles

Russian strikes on the Kyiv region overnight killed at least 21 people, with Ukrainian officials warning that a shortage of interceptors is now directly costing lives as Russia scales up the size of its missile salvos, according to the BBC. The escalation lands as European governments weigh further air-defense commitments, with direct implications for energy markets and defense-sector demand that reach as far as Japan's own defense contractors — Tokyo tested its long-range Type 12 missile this week as its counterstrike capability against regional threats continues to expand.

Bitcoin holds its range as equities keep climbing

Bitcoin traded little changed near $64,000 — last confirmed at $64,159, down 0.24% — even as global equities extended their record run, continuing to trade largely detached from the same risk-on catalysts driving stocks. Some analysts now describe bitcoin as forming a bottom "through boredom," with spot ETF inflows offsetting the lack of a clear directional catalyst, according to The Block.

Tech
Google DeepMind loses both its CEO and chief scientist in a single day

Demis Hassabis is stepping down as CEO of Google DeepMind to become the unit's chairman and take on the additional title of Alphabet chief scientist, while Jeff Dean — Google's chief scientist of 27 years — is leaving entirely to co-found an AI-for-science startup called Discovery Loop, according to CNBC. 3 other senior Google AI figures, including DeepMind vice president Oriol Vinyals and Google Brain co-founder Quoc Le, are joining Dean at the new venture, which Google itself is investing in. DeepMind CTO Koray Kavukcuoglu steps up to run day-to-day operations as senior vice president, reporting directly to Sundar Pichai. Alphabet shares fell roughly 3-4% on the news — a sharp market reaction to a reshuffle Google is framing as amicable, and one worth watching into Thursday given how directly Alphabet's AI execution now sits at the center of the broader AI-trade narrative.

SpaceX goes "exclusive to Nvidia" as its own stock craters on AI spending

SpaceX shares fell as much as 13% even after a strong first earnings report as a public company, with investors focused on capital expenditures that jumped 6-fold to $18.4 billion for the quarter — most of it AI-related — overshadowing 92% revenue growth to $7.8 billion, according to CNBC. On the earnings call, Elon Musk said SpaceX and xAI would go "exclusive to Nvidia" for future AI computing, citing Nvidia's Vera Rubin architecture as the best available platform, and detailed a satellite program called Starmind that will carry Nvidia's Rubin GPUs into orbit for space-based AI compute starting next year. Nvidia shares rose roughly 2% on the endorsement — a clean read-through for Tokyo Electron and Advantest, both suppliers into Nvidia's chip-manufacturing chain.

Samsung warns the global memory shortage now runs through 2028

Samsung told customers this week that the global DRAM and NAND shortage will intensify through 2027 and persist into 2028, as memory makers keep converting production lines toward high-bandwidth memory for AI accelerators at the expense of standard chips, according to The Register. New DRAM capacity from multiple suppliers isn't expected until 2027, with meaningful additional output not landing until 2028. It's the clearest signal yet that the current memory price surge — DDR5 contract pricing has more than doubled this year — has years left to run, a dynamic that continues to flow directly into earnings at Japan's Kioxia and the broader chip-equipment supply chain around Kokusai Electric and Advantest.

AMD falls despite a beat as gaming shrinks to a rounding error

AMD shares fell roughly 9% Wednesday even after a record quarter, with investors focused on guidance that failed to clear elevated expectations — and gaming, once a core AMD franchise, now accounts for just 6% of the company's revenue, according to IGN, a sign of how completely the AI and data-center business has come to define the stock. It's the same story playing out across this earnings cycle: a genuine beat isn't enough on its own when the market has already priced in near-perfection.

Microsoft's AI revenue is mostly OpenAI, disclosures show

Microsoft's AI-related sales are overwhelmingly attributable to its commercial relationship with OpenAI rather than Microsoft's own Copilot and Azure AI products directly, according to disclosures reported by Bloomberg. Microsoft shares have still been on a parabolic run, trading more than 11% above their 50-day moving average with an RSI near 77 — technically overbought territory — even as the disclosure raises a real question about how much of Microsoft's AI narrative is organic versus a pass-through of OpenAI's own growth.

Amazon and Alphabet's AI stakes are reshaping their own balance sheets

Amazon booked a $53.4 billion gain this year, largely from the appreciation of its stake in Anthropic, while Alphabet is separately weighing a $15 billion commitment of its own, according to Yahoo Finance. It's a vivid illustration of how AI-lab equity stakes have become a material line item on Big Tech balance sheets in their own right — Amazon's paper gain on Anthropic alone now dwarfs entire product lines — even before accounting for the AI infrastructure and compute revenue those companies also report.

Lam Research says the AI chip supercycle isn't over

Lam Research's latest order book shows no sign of the AI-driven semiconductor equipment supercycle slowing, with bookings continuing to run well ahead of prior-cycle norms, according to The Motley Fool. Lam competes directly with Tokyo Electron across several equipment categories, so a strong order book at Lam is generally read as a positive signal for Tokyo Electron's own bookings into its upcoming results, even though the two companies don't report on the same day.

Lifestyle
Starbucks Japan expands its platform-only kiosk format to Kyoto and Nagoya

Starbucks Japan will open takeaway-only kiosks on the Tokaido Shinkansen platforms at Kyoto and Nagoya stations in 2027, following the surprise popularity of its first platform store at Shin-Yokohama, according to SoraNews24. The format is tiny by design — the original location measures just 150 square feet with no seating — built entirely around touchscreen ordering and cashless payment for travelers with only minutes before their train departs. Each location also gets its own digital stamp in Starbucks' app, turning a coffee run into a small collectible souvenir of the station itself.

J1 League kicks off its new autumn-spring era this week

Japan's top football division begins its historic switch to an autumn-spring calendar this week, aligning the J.League with the AFC Champions League Elite's own autumn-spring rhythm and ending years of Japanese clubs juggling mismatched domestic and continental schedules, according to J.League. The league has been building toward the change since a 2023 vote, using a special bridge competition earlier this year to smooth the transition — Japanese football writers are already calling it a "second genesis" for the sport domestically, per Yahoo Japan.

Ninomiya Kazunari jokes he might finally buy Kawaguchi Haruna a house

Arashi member Ninomiya Kazunari remarked in a recent appearance that it might be "about time" he bought a house for actress Kawaguchi Haruna, a lighthearted nod to their long-rumored relationship, according to Livedoor News. Neither has formally confirmed the relationship, which only makes an offhand comment like this one catnip for entertainment coverage every time it happens.

New idol unit TAKARA debuts, built around ASHA and KOKONA

A new idol unit called TAKARA, centered on performers ASHA and KOKONA, has been announced and is set to debut, according to Livedoor News. It's one more entrant into Japan's constantly-refreshing idol-group pipeline, where new units debut on a near-monthly cycle to keep the broader ecosystem's talent rotation moving.

Voice actor Afumi Hashi announces her marriage

Anime voice actor Afumi Hashi announced her marriage this week, according to Anime News Network. Marriage announcements from working voice actors are a real fixture of anime-industry news coverage in Japan, where individual performers can carry substantial independent fan followings well beyond any single role.

A giant beckoning cat turns 20, and Hello Kitty is coming to the party

The city of Tokoname in Aichi Prefecture has kicked off a year-long birthday celebration for Tokonyan, its giant beckoning-cat statue — a manekineko standing 3.8 meters tall and 6.3 meters wide near the city's Pottery Footpath tourist walk — with Sanrio's Hello Kitty joining in as a collaboration partner, according to SoraNews24. The celebration runs through next July, building toward the statue's actual 20th birthday on March 28, 2027, and already includes embroidered towels, keychains and stickers from the Hello Kitty tie-in, with an airport partnership and illuminated night photo sessions still to come. A giant fortune-beckoning cat statue getting its own year-long birthday party, co-hosted by the world's most famous cartoon cat, is exactly the kind of civic enthusiasm that makes small-city Japan tourism marketing so much fun to watch.

Scraps
Markets & Macro
The Wedbush analyst argues the pullback has outrun the underlying fundamentals.
The backlog now dwarfs the company's own market cap.
The fund extends Robinhood's push beyond retail brokerage.
The round underscores continued appetite for AI-adjacent insurance tech.
World & Asia
The test underscores Tokyo's continued defense buildup.
Investigators are reviewing how close the near-miss came to becoming a disaster.
The valuation reflects strong investor appetite for China's humanoid-robotics sector.
The closures mark a notable pullback in US diplomatic presence.
Culture & Tech
The move signals growing ambitions to control more of its own compute stack.
The bug also affects other browsers built on the same engine.
The move marks Amazon's robotaxi unit's first commercial fares after years of free rides.
The shutdown continues Google's push to fold Assistant into Gemini.
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CALENDAR · WEEK AHEAD
THU · AUG 6 · TODAY
US President Trump SpeaksMACRO
US Unemployment ClaimsMACRO
~05:00AppLovin Corp. earningsEARNINGS
~05:00Axon Enterprise Inc. earningsEARNINGS
~05:00MetLife Inc. earningsEARNINGS
~05:00Motorola Solutions Inc. earningsEARNINGS
FRI · AUG 7
21:30NFP / US Jobs Report (July 2026)MACRO
US Average Hourly Earnings m/mMACRO
US Non-Farm Employment ChangeMACRO
Japan Household Spending y/yMACRO
~05:00American International Group Inc. earningsEARNINGS
~05:00Republic Services Inc. earningsEARNINGS
MON · AUG 10
08:50BOJ Summary of Opinions (July 30-31 MPM) — confirm dateMACRO
~15:30SHO-BOND Holdings Co.,Ltd. earningsEARNINGS
~15:30Sumitomo Metal Mining Co.,Ltd. earningsEARNINGS
~15:30QD Laser,Inc. earningsEARNINGS
TUE · AUG 11
Japan Mountain Day — TSE ClosedMACRO
~05:00Simon Property Group Inc. earningsEARNINGS
WED · AUG 12
21:30US CPI (July 2026)MACRO
Tencent Holdings earningsEARNINGS
~15:30COVER Corporation earningsEARNINGS
~15:30Tokio Marine Holdings,Inc. earningsEARNINGS
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