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TokyoToday
WED · AUG 5 · 6:11 AM JST
BY SAVVY GIANT · DAILY · TEXT · AUDIO · JST
Pre & Post Market + Weekends & Holidays
Japan Markets

Wall Street closed the books on a record-setting Tuesday — the Dow's best day of the year, the S&P 500 at a fresh high — as Palantir's guidance raise and Caterpillar's AI-capex beat did the heavy lifting and oil eased on hopes for a Hormuz breakthrough. Tokyo enters Wednesday having already clawed back the 63,900 level Tuesday, with the yen still the live wire underneath everything: Washington is now leaning on the Fed itself to help defend it. Kumamoto crosses the one-week mark with its toll unchanged but its shelters finally thinning.

Wall Street's record session hands Tokyo a loaded overnight setup

The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 907.47 points, or 1.71%, to a record 54,085.88 Tuesday, while the S&P 500 gained 1.79% to a record 7,736.52 and the Nasdaq Composite surged 2.59% to 26,584.99, according to TheStreet. Palantir led the charge, soaring nearly 30% — its biggest one-day percentage gain since February 2024 — after raising its annual revenue forecast to $8.15-8.16 billion, up from a prior $7.65-7.66 billion range, with revenue up 93% to $1.94 billion, comfortably ahead of the $1.80 billion analysts expected, according to Bloomberg. Caterpillar was the single biggest contributor to the Dow's advance, worth more than 300 points on its own, after raising its own revenue-growth forecast on AI-data-center-driven demand for its power-generation and construction gear. Crude and Treasury yields both eased on hopes for an Iran deal, adding fuel to the rally. Japan's own market opens shortly, and it does so with a genuinely loaded setup: a record Wall Street session, a softer dollar backdrop, and a yen story still very much unresolved.

Nikkei recovers the 63,900 level as Tuesday's session closes higher

The Nikkei 225 closed Tuesday's session at 63,957.53, up 0.32% and recovering the 63,900 level after Monday's yen-driven slide, while the TOPIX also firmed. Technology and chip-equipment names led the bounce, mirroring a broader Asia tech snapback. With the Tokyo market not yet open Wednesday, that Tuesday close remains the most recent confirmed print heading into the session.

Washington leans on the Fed itself to help defend the yen

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is pushing Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to expand the Fed's FIMA Repo Facility so Japan can raise dollars without dumping Treasurys outright to fund yen-defense operations, according to CNBC — a mechanism that would let Tokyo access dollar liquidity by pledging Treasurys as collateral rather than selling them into the market, which would otherwise risk pushing US yields higher and adding to Washington's own borrowing costs. It's a sign of how far the coordinated intervention campaign has escalated: last week's operation wasn't a one-off, and the Treasury is now trying to build permanent plumbing to support it. Separately, Bessent told NHK that last week's coordinated intervention carried mostly symbolic significance, while other reporting suggested his remarks could be read as hinting at an imminent BOJ rate hike. USD/JPY sat at 157.79, up 0.71% from Monday, still well above the lows hit during last week's intervention.

Toyota's earnings are now a US-tariff story as much as an auto story

A day after raising its profit outlook and unveiling a ¥1 trillion buyback, Toyota is facing fresh scrutiny over just how exposed that outlook now is to Washington: US tariffs erased the entirety of Toyota's North American profit in the fiscal year just ended, turning a historically reliable regional profit center into an operating loss, according to Nikkei Asia. North America remains Toyota's single biggest sales driver, ahead of Japan and Europe, which means the buyback and raised guidance announced Tuesday are, in effect, a bet that the current tariff regime doesn't get materially worse from here — a bet the company doesn't fully control.

SoftBank, PayPay and SMFG take a combined stake in Seven & i to build an AI retail play

SoftBank Corp., PayPay and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group will each invest roughly ¥100 billion — about ¥300 billion ($1.8 billion) combined — for a roughly 2.3% stake apiece in Seven & i Holdings, the operator of 7-Eleven, according to Bloomberg. SoftBank plans to apply AI developed with OpenAI to store inventory management and customer-service analytics, and is separately looking to pilot autonomous robots for routine in-store tasks as Japan's retail sector continues to grapple with labor shortages. It's the clearest sign yet that SoftBank's "AI economic sphere" strategy is moving from telecom and finance into physical retail infrastructure.

Sumitomo Pharma acknowledges the short-seller report without directly rebutting it

Sumitomo Pharma confirmed Tuesday that a report published by short seller Gotham City Research reflects "the independent views and assertions of its author" and was not issued by the company, adding that it prepares its financial statements in accordance with applicable laws and accounting standards, according to the company's own statement. The brief statement stops short of directly addressing Gotham's specific allegation — a roughly ¥165 billion ($1.05 billion) discrepancy between a dividend disclosed by a Swiss subsidiary and a distributions-in-kind figure that later appeared in parent Sumitomo Chemical's own notes. Shares of both companies remain under pressure pending a fuller response.

Kumamoto reaches one week with its toll steady, shelters finally emptying

One week after the magnitude-7.1 earthquake, roughly 7,500 people remained in evacuation shelters across Kumamoto Prefecture, down from more than 8,200 earlier in the week, according to Nippon.com. The confirmed death toll held at 38. The government is coordinating to designate the disaster "extremely severe" (激甚災害) at a cabinet meeting as soon as Thursday, according to NHK, a formal step that unlocks a higher tier of national reconstruction funding for the roughly 12,000 damaged buildings across the prefecture. Persistent water outages and an ongoing heatwave continue to strain both evacuees and relief operations even as the physical rescue phase winds down.

Japan's defense ministry weighs Palantir and Anduril software for command and control

Japan's government is evaluating US-made AI systems from Palantir and Anduril for Self-Defense Force command-and-control operations, aiming to move faster on integrating with the US military while developing a domestic AI layer to provide oversight of the American systems, according to Nikkei Asia. The approach — foreign systems for speed, a homegrown layer for control — reflects Tokyo's broader defense-modernization push amid rising regional security concerns, and lands the same week Palantir posted the results that sent its stock to its best day in over two years.

Furukawa Electric commits $635 million to double optical-fiber capacity for the AI buildout

Furukawa Electric plans to invest $635 million across Japan, the US, Brazil and India to roughly double its optical-fiber production capacity, as data centers powering AI workloads require sharply more fiber-optic communications capacity, according to Nikkei Asia. It's the latest example of Japan's cable and materials makers positioning directly inside the AI infrastructure buildout rather than only its chip-equipment layer.

Global
Palantir's guidance raise and Caterpillar's AI-capex beat drove Wall Street to a record close

Beyond the headline index moves, the composition of Tuesday's rally is itself the story: two very different companies — a software firm and a heavy-equipment maker — both cited AI infrastructure demand as the reason they're raising guidance, which is the market's clearest read yet that AI capex is showing up in industries well outside the chipmakers themselves. For Tokyo, that broadens the read-through beyond the usual semiconductor names toward Japan's own industrial and materials suppliers to the data-center buildout.

Iran and Oman edge toward a framework to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and oil eases

Iran and Oman have made progress on a deal that would let ships enter the Persian Gulf through an Iranian-controlled route and exit through an Omani one, with security fees attached, according to WTOP. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said "there's been progress made in those talks, but not finality yet," while Treasury Secretary Bessent told CNBC there was "a chance we may have a deal today or tomorrow." Oil pulled back Tuesday on the prospect of a resolution, adding to the tailwind behind Wall Street's rally. Up to 80 Hong Kong-linked vessels remain stuck around the strait awaiting clarity, according to the South China Morning Post — a reminder of how much Asian shipping capacity is currently idled by the standoff, Japan's own energy-import routes included.

BP's profit jumps 78% to $5.7 billion on the war's oil-price premium

BP's underlying replacement-cost profit rose 78% to $5.7 billion in the second quarter, beating analyst forecasts of roughly $5.1 billion, as the Iran conflict's premium on crude prices flowed straight to the bottom line, according to The National. BP raised its dividend on the results. It's the same dynamic that lifted Saudi Aramco's own profit a day earlier, and it puts oil majors in the odd position of posting some of their strongest quarters in years directly because of a conflict Washington is simultaneously trying to end.

Samsung and SK Hynix indicated higher as Korea tracks Wall Street's rally into Wednesday

Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix were both indicated roughly 2% higher in early Wednesday trade, tracking Wall Street's record session overnight, according to Seoul Economic Daily. Both chipmakers are still working through a volatile stretch — Monday's sharp regional selloff followed a Friday surge — and Wednesday's early indication points toward continued stabilization rather than a fresh leg down, a read-through worth watching for Tokyo's own chip-equipment names at the open.

US job openings slip ahead of Friday's payrolls report

US job openings fell to 7.36 million in June, below the 7.40 million expected and down from a revised 7.54 million in May, with hiring and quits rates both still stuck near cycle lows, according to Indeed's Hiring Lab. The soft print adds another data point ahead of Friday's nonfarm payrolls release, which arrives right alongside the BOJ's own hawkish-minority debate — a widening rate-path gap between a cooling US labor market and a Bank of Japan still weighing whether to move faster is exactly the kind of divergence that keeps the yen intervention story alive.

Bitcoin holds near $64,000 as risk appetite broadens

Bitcoin continued coiling near $64,000 even as equities ran to records, with traders looking past both the ongoing Coldcard hardware-wallet exploit and Strategy's recent bitcoin sales, according to Cointelegraph. The muted crypto reaction to a record equity session is itself notable — bitcoin has largely decoupled from the same risk-on catalysts driving stocks this week.

Tech
AMD's blowout quarter still isn't enough for investors

AMD reported second-quarter revenue of $11.5 billion, up roughly 50% year-over-year, with non-GAAP earnings of $1.66 a share, both ahead of Wall Street's estimates, and guided to Q3 revenue of about $13 billion, implying another 41% year-over-year gain, according to StockTitan. Data Center revenue, driven by EPYC CPUs and Instinct GPUs, reached $6.7 billion, up 107% and now 58% of total revenue. Shares fell more than 8% anyway — a sign of just how high the bar has climbed for AI-chip names after a run of blowout quarters across the sector. For Tokyo Electron, Advantest and Disco, the read-through is still constructive: data-center demand accelerating 107% is exactly the signal the chip-equipment names need, even if AMD's own stock didn't get credit for it.

SpaceX beats badly-lowered expectations in its first quarter as a public company

SpaceX reported a second-quarter net loss of $541 million on revenue of $7.8 billion, up 92% year-over-year, well ahead of the roughly $6.8 billion in revenue and $1.9 billion loss analysts had penciled in, according to CNN. All three business units — Space, Connectivity and AI — beat consensus, with Starlink revenue up 66%. The result narrows the loss from $4.3 billion in the first quarter, though the stock still trades around $120, well below its $135 IPO price and far off its post-listing peak near $225 — a reminder that even a genuine beat hasn't been enough to repair sentiment battered since the June IPO.

Washington weighs banning Chinese optical components from AI data centers

US officials are preparing restrictions on next-generation Chinese optical transceivers — the hardware that routes data over fiber-optic cables inside AI data centers — citing cybersecurity risk, with the FCC hoping to finalize a rule this year, according to Investing.com. US optical names Coherent, Lumentum, Applied Optoelectronics and Corning all surged Tuesday on the report, as hyperscalers would need to shift toward alternative suppliers. Japan's own optical and cable makers — the same complex Furukawa Electric is expanding into, see Japan Markets above — sit adjacent to exactly this kind of supply-chain reshuffling.

Washington moves to shield US polysilicon makers from China

The Trump administration is preparing a price floor and tariffs on polysilicon, the material underpinning both solar panels and semiconductors, to protect domestic producers Hemlock Semiconductor and Wacker Chemie from Chinese competition, according to Reuters, via Investing.com. The decision, expected later this month, follows a year-long Commerce Department national-security probe. Shin-Etsu Chemical, Japan's own polysilicon and silicon-wafer giant, is one of a small handful of global producers positioned to benefit from tighter restrictions on Chinese supply.

SanDisk and SK Hynix unveil an open standard for NAND-based AI memory

SanDisk and SK Hynix formally released the first technical specification for High Bandwidth Flash, a NAND-based alternative to HBM memory aimed at AI inference workloads, offering up to 512GB of capacity per module versus roughly 64GB for a comparable HBM4 stack, according to Tom's Hardware. The spec, released through the Open Compute Project as an open standard, targets AI inference specifically — a workload that needs large, cheap memory pools rather than HBM's raw bandwidth. Kioxia, Japan's NAND-only maker, doesn't compete in HBM but sits squarely inside the same NAND category this new standard is built on.

Anthropic locks in $10 billion of compute from a six-month-old startup

Anthropic signed a six-year, $10 billion compute deal with Volta, an AI infrastructure startup founded in January by former Brookfield executives, which will build a 133-megawatt data center in Norway powered by Nvidia's next-generation Vera Rubin chips, according to TechCrunch. Volta separately raised $300 million in venture funding at a $2.4 billion valuation the same day, with crypto-mining firm Bitdeer developing the physical facility. The deal is another data point in just how much fresh capital is flowing into brand-new AI infrastructure vehicles — Volta didn't exist six months ago — as the major labs race to lock in compute years in advance.

OpenAI fights on two legal fronts at once

OpenAI disputed Apple's account of its trade-secrets lawsuit hours after Apple asked a federal judge for an injunction barring two ex-Apple employees and OpenAI from using confidential information, saying it has shared internal messages contradicting Apple's claims, according to CNET. Separately, the Justice Department secured a $3.2 million settlement from OpenAI over allegations it discriminated against US workers by preferring visa-holders for certain roles, according to Engadget. Neither matter threatens OpenAI's core business, but both add to a steadily accumulating list of legal exposure for the company even as it keeps signing record compute deals.

Lifestyle
Ariana Grande withdraws from her West End stage return

Ariana Grande has officially withdrawn from the 2027 West End revival of "Sunday in the Park with George," where she was set to star opposite Jonathan Bailey, according to the Hollywood Reporter. A representative said she's taking a step back from public-facing work after finishing her current tour. The production confirmed it will proceed at the Barbican as planned, with new casting to be announced — but the decision reportedly caught key members of the production off guard, who had only hours' notice before the announcement went out.

Charli xcx scores her first No. 1 on the sales chart

Charli xcx's "Music, Fashion, Film" debuted atop Billboard's Top Album Sales chart, her first time reaching No. 1 on that particular ranking, according to Billboard. It caps a run of chart milestones for an artist who's spent the past few years becoming one of pop's most consistent hitmakers.

"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" closes in on the $1 billion mark

"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" is racing toward $1 billion at the global box office, according to Gizmodo, putting it in rare company — only 63 films in history have ever crossed that threshold. The milestone comes even as some critics have quietly moved the film out of the MCU's own top 10 on aggregator scores, a split between box-office dominance and critical reception that's becoming a running theme for the franchise's newest phase.

"Sakamoto Days" passes 18 million copies in worldwide circulation

The "Sakamoto Days" manga has topped 18 million copies in circulation worldwide, according to Anime News Network, underscoring how far the assassin-turned-shopkeeper series has traveled beyond Japan since it began serialization — now a genuine global manga heavyweight rather than a niche hit.

Pokémon Center Online will require Japanese ID for its rarest items

Pokémon Center Online has designated its first set of items that will require buyers to verify a Japanese ID card before purchase, according to SoraNews24, a direct response to resellers buying up limited merchandise for markup abroad. It's a small but telling sign of how much pressure Japan's collectibles market is under from international scalping.

A new pedestrian bridge links Otemachi-Marunouchi to Kanda

A new pedestrian bridge connecting the Otemachi-Marunouchi business district with the Kanda area opened this week, according to NewsOnJapan, shortening what had been an awkward walk between two of central Tokyo's busiest office and shopping districts and adding another small piece to the area's ongoing redevelopment.

Okinawa's "Banana Uncle" is trying to make bananas a local industry

Japan imports over a million tons of bananas a year but grows barely 200 tons of its own, and Makoto Hayashi — known online as the "Banana Uncle" — is trying to change that from a food truck in Okinawa, according to NewsOnJapan. Hayashi left construction work nine years ago to grow high-sugar Apple bananas suited to Okinawa's subtropical climate, weathered a pandemic restaurant closure, and is now chasing a modest but very specific goal: just 1% of Japan's roughly ¥100 billion banana market, which he figures would be enough to make banana farming a real source of income across the prefecture. "I want to spread banana cultivation throughout Okinawa and help increase the income of each resident," he says — one grower's quietly stubborn bet that Japan doesn't have to import every banana it eats.

Scraps
Markets & Macro
Wegovy volume growth remains the core driver even as guidance disappoints.
The deal expands P&G's push into the wellness and supplements category.
The smallest MAX variant clears its last major regulatory hurdle.
Health officials are still tracing the contamination source.
The admission comes as the chain's US sales growth slows.
World & Asia
The change would tighten one of the main pathways to long-term status.
The drills reflect deepening concern over Beijing's naval posture near the island.
Tourist spending continues to underpin the recovery.
The declaration unlocks additional emergency response funding.
Culture & Tech
The case centered on claims OpenAI favored visa-holding workers for certain roles.
Dallas becomes the latest city where Waymo drops its waitlist.
The markup illustrates just how much AI-lab valuations have run since early investment rounds closed.
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CALENDAR · WEEK AHEAD
WED · AUG 5 · TODAY
Japan Monetary Policy Meeting MinutesMACRO
US ADP Non-Farm Employment ChangeMACRO
US ISM Services PMIMACRO
~15:30KAJIMA CORPORATION earningsEARNINGS
~15:30KIKKOMAN CORPORATION earningsEARNINGS
~15:30NITTO BOSEKI CO.,LTD. earningsEARNINGS
THU · AUG 6
US Unemployment ClaimsMACRO
~15:30DAIWA HOUSE INDUSTRY CO.,LTD. earningsEARNINGS
~15:30Ajinomoto Co.,Inc. earningsEARNINGS
~15:30UNITIKA LTD. earningsEARNINGS
~15:30Resonac Holdings Corporation earningsEARNINGS
~15:30FUJIFILM Holdings Corporation earningsEARNINGS
FRI · AUG 7
21:30NFP / US Jobs Report (July 2026)MACRO
US Average Hourly Earnings m/mMACRO
US Non-Farm Employment ChangeMACRO
Japan Household Spending y/yMACRO
~15:30OBAYASHI CORPORATION earningsEARNINGS
~15:30Kirin Holdings Company,Limited earningsEARNINGS
MON · AUG 10
08:50BOJ Summary of Opinions (July 30-31 MPM) — confirm dateMACRO
~15:30SHO-BOND Holdings Co.,Ltd. earningsEARNINGS
~15:30Sumitomo Metal Mining Co.,Ltd. earningsEARNINGS
~15:30QD Laser,Inc. earningsEARNINGS
TUE · AUG 11
Japan Mountain Day — TSE ClosedMACRO
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